Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Mohammad H Forouzanfar Lily Alexander 1 H Ross Anderson 2 Victoria F Bachman Stan Biryukov Michael Brauer 3 Richard Burnett 4 Daniel Casey 5, 6 Matthew M Coates Aaron Cohen Kristen Delwiche Kara Estep Joseph J Frostad K C Astha Hmwe H Kyu Maziar Moradi-Lakeh Marie Ng 7 Erica Leigh Slepak Bernadette A Thomas 8 Joseph Wagner 9 Gunn Marit Aasvang Cristiana Abbafati Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren Foad Abd-Allah Semaw F Abera Victor Aboyans 10, 11 Biju Abraham Jerry Puthenpurakal Abraham Ibrahim Abubakar Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh Tania C Aburto Tom Achoki Ademola Adelekan Koranteng Adofo Arsène K Adou José C Adsuar Ashkan Afshin Emilie E Agardh Mazin J Al Khabouri Faris H Al Lami Sayed Saidul Alam Deena Alasfoor Mohammed I Albittar Miguel A Alegretti Alicia V Aleman Zewdie A Alemu Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho Samia Alhabib Raghib Ali Mohammed K Ali 12 François Alla 13, 14 Peter Allebeck 15 Peter J Allen 16 Ubai Alsharif Elena Alvarez 17 Nelson Alvis-Guzman Adansi A Amankwaa Azmeraw T Amare Emmanuel A Ameh Omid Ameli Heresh Amini 18 Walid Ammar Benjamin O Anderson 19 Carl Abelardo T Antonio Palwasha Anwari Solveig Argeseanu Cunningham Johan Arnlöv Valentina S Arsic Arsenijevic Al Artaman Rana J Asghar Reza Assadi 20 Lydia S Atkins 21 Charles Atkinson 22 Marco A Avila Baffour Awuah Alaa Badawi Maria C Bahit Talal Bakfalouni Kalpana Balakrishnan 23 Shivanthi Balalla Ravi Kumar Balu Amitava Banerjee 24 Ryan M Barber 25 Suzanne L Barker-Collo Simon Barquera Lars Barregard Lope H Barrero Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez Ana C Basto-Abreu Arindam Basu 26 Sanjay Basu 27 Mohammed O Basulaiman Carolina Batis Ruvalcaba Justin Beardsley Neeraj Bedi Tolesa Bekele Michelle L Bell 28 Corina Benjet Derrick A Bennett 29 Habib Benzian Eduardo Bernabé Tariku J Beyene Neeraj Bhala Ashish Bhalla Zulfiqar A Bhutta Boris Bikbov Aref A Bin Abdulhak Jed D Blore Fiona M Blyth Megan A Bohensky Berrak Bora Başara Guilherme Borges Natan M Bornstein 30 Dipan Bose Soufiane Boufous Rupert R Bourne Michael Brainin Alexandra Brazinova Nicholas J Breitborde Hermann Brenner Adam D M Briggs 31 David M Broday Peter M Brooks 32 Nigel G Bruce Traolach S Brugha Bert Brunekreef 33, 34 Rachelle Buchbinder Linh N Bui 35 Gene Bukhman Andrew G Bulloch Michael Burch Peter G J Burney 36 Ismael R Campos-Nonato Julio C Campuzano Alejandra J Cantoral Jack Caravanos Rosario Cárdenas Elisabeth Cardis 37 David O Carpenter 38 Valeria Caso Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela Ruben E Castro 39 Ferrán Catalá-López Fiorella Cavalleri Alanur Çavlin Vineet K Chadha 40 Jung-Chen Chang Fiona J Charlson Honglei Chen Wanqing Chen 41 Zhengming Chen 42 Peggy P Chiang Odgerel Chimed-Ochir Rajiv Chowdhury 43 Costas A Christophi 44, 45 Ting-Wu Chuang 46 Sumeet S Chugh 47 Massimo Cirillo Thomas K D Claßen Valentina Colistro Mercedes Colomar Samantha M Colquhoun Alejandra G Contreras 48 Cyrus Cooper 49 Kimberly Cooperrider Leslie T Cooper Josef Coresh Karen J Courville Michael H Criqui Lucia Cuevas-Nasu James Damsere-Derry Hadi Danawi Lalit Dandona Rakhi Dandona Paul I Dargan Adrian Davis Dragos V Davitoiu Anand Dayama E Filipa De Castro Vanessa De La Cruz-Góngora Diego De Leo Graça De Lima 50 Louisa Degenhardt Borja Del Pozo-Cruz Robert P Dellavalle Kebede Deribe Sarah Derrett Don C Des Jarlais Muluken Dessalegn Gabrielle A Deveber Karen M Devries 51 Samath D Dharmaratne Mukesh K Dherani Daniel Dicker Eric L Ding Klara Dokova E Ray Dorsey Tim R Driscoll Leilei Duan Adnan M Durrani Beth E Ebel Richard G Ellenbogen Yousef M Elshrek Matthias Endres Sergey P Ermakov Holly E Erskine Babak Eshrati Alireza Esteghamati Saman Fahimi Emerito Jose A Faraon Farshad Farzadfar Derek F J Fay Valery L Feigin Andrea B Feigl Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad Alize J Ferrari 52 Cleusa P Ferri Abraham D Flaxman Thomas D Fleming 53 Nataliya Foigt Kyle J Foreman Urbano Fra Paleo Richard C Franklin Belinda Gabbe Lynne Gaffikin Emmanuela Gakidou Amiran Gamkrelidze 54 Fortuné G Gankpé Ron T Gansevoort 55 Francisco A García-Guerra Evariste Gasana Johanna M Geleijnse 56 Bradford D Gessner Pete Gething 57 Katherine B Gibney Richard F Gillum Ibrahim a M Ginawi 58 Maurice Giroud Giorgia Giussani 59 Shifalika Goenka Ketevan Goginashvili Hector Gomez Dantes Philimon Gona Teresita Gonzalez de Cosio Dinorah González-Castell Carolyn C Gotay Atsushi Goto Hebe N Gouda Richard L Guerrant Harish C Gugnani Francis Guillemin David Gunnell 60 Rahul Gupta 61 Rajeev Gupta 61 Reyna A Gutiérrez 62 Nima Hafezi-Nejad Holly Hagan Maria Hagstromer 63 Yara A Halasa Randah R Hamadeh Mouhanad Hammami 64 Graeme J Hankey Yuantao Hao Hilda L Harb 65 Tilahun Nigatu Haregu Josep Maria Haro Rasmus Havmoeller Simon I Hay Mohammad T Hedayati 66 Ileana B Heredia-Pi Lucia Hernandez 67 Kyle R Heuton Pouria Heydarpour 68 Martha Hijar Hans W Hoek Howard J Hoffman John C Hornberger H Dean Hosgood Damian G Hoy 69 Mohamed Hsairi Guoqing Hu 70 Howard Hu 71, 72 Cheng Huang 73 John J Huang Bryan J Hubbell Laetitia Huiart 74 Abdullatif Husseini Marissa L Iannarone Kim M Iburg Bulat T Idrisov Nayu Ikeda Kaire Innos Manami Inoue Farhad Islami Samaya Ismayilova Kathryn H Jacobsen Henrica A Jansen 75 Deborah L Jarvis 76 Simerjot K Jassal Alejandra Jauregui Sudha Jayaraman Panniyammakal Jeemon Paul N Jensen 77 Vivekanand Jha Fan Jiang 78 Guohong Jiang 79 Ying Jiang 80 Jost B Jonas 81, 82 Knud Juel Haidong Kan Sidibe S Kany Roseline Nadim E Karam 83 André Karch Corine K Karema Ganesan Karthikeyan Anil Kaul 84 Norito Kawakami Dhruv S Kazi Andrew H Kemp 85 Andre P Kengne 86 Andre Keren Yousef S Khader Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa 87 Ejaz A Khan 88 Young-Ho Khang Shahab Khatibzadeh Irma Khonelidze Christian Kieling Daniel Kim Sungroul Kim 89 Yunjin Kim Ruth W Kimokoti Yohannes Kinfu Jonas M Kinge Brett M Kissela Miia Kivipelto 90 Luke D Knibbs Ann Kristin Knudsen 91 Yoshihiro Kokubo M Rifat Kose Soewarta Kosen Alexander Kraemer Michael Kravchenko Sanjay Krishnaswami Hans Kromhout Tiffany Ku Barthelemy Kuate Defo Burcu Kucuk Bicer Ernst J Kuipers 92 Chanda Kulkarni Veena S Kulkarni 93 G Anil Kumar Gene F Kwan Taavi Lai 94 Arjun Lakshmana Balaji Ratilal Lalloo Tea Lallukka 95 Hilton Lam 96 Qing Lan Van C Lansingh Heidi J Larson Anders Larsson 97 Dennis O Laryea Pablo M Lavados 98 Alicia E Lawrynowicz Janet L Leasher Jong-Tae Lee James Leigh Ricky Leung Miriam Levi 99 Yichong Li Yongmei Li Juan Liang Xiaofeng Liang Stephen S Lim 100 M Patrice Lindsay Steven E Lipshultz Shiwei Liu Yang Liu 101 Belinda K Lloyd Giancarlo Logroscino 102 Stephanie J London 103 Nancy Lopez 104 Joannie Lortet-Tieulent Paulo A Lotufo Rafael Lozano 105 Raimundas Lunevicius Jixiang Ma 106 Stefan Ma Vasco M P Machado Michael F Macintyre Carlos Magis-Rodriguez Abbas A Mahdi 107 Marek Majdan 108 Reza Malekzadeh Srikanth Mangalam Christopher C Mapoma Marape Marape Wagner Marcenes 109 David J Margolis 110, 111 Christopher Margono Guy B Marks Randall V Martin 112 Melvin B Marzan Mohammad T Mashal Felix Masiye Amanda J Mason-Jones Kunihiro Matsushita Richard Matzopoulos Bongani M Mayosi Tasara T Mazorodze Abigail C Mckay Martin Mckee 113 Abigail Mclain Peter A Meaney Catalina Medina Man Mohan Mehndiratta Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez Wubegzier Mekonnen Yohannes A Melaku Michele Meltzer Ziad A Memish 114, 115 Walter Mendoza George A Mensah 116 Atte Meretoja Francis Apolinary Mhimbira Renata Micha 117, 118 Ted R Miller Edward J Mills 119 Awoke Misganaw Santosh Mishra Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim Karzan A Mohammad 120 Ali H Mokdad Glen L Mola Lorenzo Monasta Julio C Montañez Hernandez Marcella Montico 121 Ami R Moore 122 Lidia Morawska Rintaro Mori Joanna Moschandreas Wilkister N Moturi Dariush Mozaffarian 117, 123 Ulrich O Mueller Mitsuru Mukaigawara Erin C Mullany Kinnari S Murthy Mohsen Naghavi Ziad Nahas 124 Aliya Naheed Kovin S Naidoo 125, 126 Luigi Naldi 127 Devina Nand Vinay Nangia K M Venkat Narayan Denis Nash 128 Bruce Neal 129 Chakib Nejjari 130 Sudan P Neupane Charles R Newton Frida N Ngalesoni Jean de Dieu Ngirabega Grant Nguyen 131 Nhung T Nguyen 132 Mark J Nieuwenhuijsen 133, 37, 134 Muhammad I Nisar José R Nogueira 135 Joan M Nolla Sandra Nolte Ole F Norheim Rosana E Norman Bo Norrving 136 Luke Nyakarahuka In-Hwan Oh Takayoshi Ohkubo Bolajoko O Olusanya Saad B Omer John Nelson Opio Ricardo Orozco 137 Rodolfo S Pagcatipunan Amanda W Pain Jeyaraj D Pandian Carlo Irwin A Panelo Christina Papachristou 138 Eun-Kee Park Charles D Parry Angel J Paternina Caicedo Scott B Patten Vinod K Paul Boris I Pavlin 139 Neil Pearce Lilia S Pedraza Andrea Pedroza Ljiljana Pejin Stokic Ayfer Pekericli David M Pereira Rogelio Perez-Padilla Fernando Perez-Ruiz Norberto Perico Samuel a L Perry Aslam Pervaiz Konrad Pesudovs Carrie B Peterson Max Petzold 140 Michael R Phillips 141 Hwee Pin Phua Dietrich Plass Dan Poenaru 142 Guilherme V Polanczyk Suzanne Polinder Constance D Pond C Arden Pope 143 Daniel Pope Svetlana Popova Farshad Pourmalek John Powles 144 Dorairaj Prabhakaran 145 Noela M Prasad 146 Dima M Qato Amado D Quezada D Alex A Quistberg Lionel Racapé Anwar Rafay Kazem Rahimi 147 Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar Sajjad Ur Rahman 148 Murugesan Raju Ivo Rakovac Saleem M Rana Mayuree Rao Homie Razavi K Srinath Reddy 149 Amany H Refaat Jürgen Rehm Giuseppe Remuzzi 150 Antonio L Ribeiro 151 Patricia M Riccio 152 Lee Richardson Anne Riederer Margaret Robinson Anna Roca 153 Alina Rodriguez David Rojas-Rueda Isabelle Romieu Luca Ronfani Robin Room Nobhojit Roy 154 George M Ruhago Lesley Rushton Nsanzimana Sabin 155 Ralph L Sacco 156 Sukanta Saha 157 Ramesh Sahathevan Mohammad Ali Sahraian Joshua A Salomon Deborah Salvo Uchechukwu K Sampson Juan R Sanabria Luz Maria Sanchez 158 Tania G Sánchez-Pimienta Lidia Sanchez-Riera Logan Sandar Itamar S Santos 159 Amir Sapkota Maheswar Satpathy James E Saunders Monika Sawhney Mete I Saylan Peter Scarborough Jürgen C Schmidt 160 Ione J C Schneider 161 Ben Schöttker David C Schwebel James G Scott 162 Soraya Seedat Sadaf G Sepanlou Berrin Serdar Edson E Servan-Mori Gavin Shaddick Saeid Shahraz Teresa Shamah Levy 163 Siyi Shangguan Jun She Sara Sheikhbahaei Kenji Shibuya Hwashin H Shin Yukito Shinohara Rahman Shiri Kawkab Shishani Ivy Shiue Inga D Sigfusdottir Donald H Silberberg Edgar P Simard Shireen Sindi Abhishek Singh 164 Gitanjali M Singh Jasvinder A Singh Vegard Skirbekk Karen Sliwa 165 Michael Soljak Samir Soneji Kjetil Søreide Sergey Soshnikov Luciano A Sposato Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy Nicolas J C Stapelberg Vasiliki Stathopoulou Nadine Steckling Dan J Stein Murray B Stein 166 Natalie Stephens Heidi Stöckl 167 Kurt Straif Konstantinos Stroumpoulis Lela Sturua Bruno F Sunguya Soumya Swaminathan Mamta Swaroop Bryan L Sykes Karen M Tabb Ken Takahashi 168 Roberto T Talongwa Nikhil Tandon 169 David Tanne 170 Marcel Tanner 171 Mohammad Tavakkoli Braden J Te Ao Carolina M Teixeira 172 Martha M Téllez Rojo Abdullah S Terkawi José Luis Texcalac-Sangrador Sarah V Thackway Blake Thomson 173 Andrew L Thorne-Lyman Amanda G Thrift George D Thurston Taavi Tillmann Myriam Tobollik Marcello Tonelli 174 Fotis Topouzis 175 Jeffrey A Towbin Hideaki Toyoshima Jefferson Traebert Bach X Tran 176 Leonardo Trasande Matias Trillini Ulises Trujillo Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene Miltiadis Tsilimbaris Emin Murat Tuzcu Uche S Uchendu Kingsley N Ukwaja Selen B Uzun Steven Van de Vijver Rita Van Dingenen 177 Coen H Van Gool Jim Van Os 178 Yuri Y Varakin Tommi J Vasankari Ana Maria N Vasconcelos 179 Monica S Vavilala Lennert J Veerman Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez N Venketasubramanian Lakshmi Vijayakumar Salvador Villalpando Francesco S Violante 180 Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov 181 Stein Emil Vollset Gregory R Wagner Stephen G Waller 182 Mitchell T Wallin 183 Xia Wan Haidong Wang Jianli Wang Linhong Wang Wenzhi Wang Yanping Wang Tati S Warouw Charlotte H Watts 184, 185 Scott Weichenthal Elisabete Weiderpass Robert G Weintraub Andrea Werdecker K Ryan Wessells Ronny Westerman Harvey A Whiteford James D Wilkinson 186 Hywel C Williams Thomas N Williams Solomon M Woldeyohannes Charles D A Wolfe 187, 188 John Q Wong 189 Anthony D Woolf Jonathan L Wright 190, 191 Brittany Wurtz Gelin Xu 192, 193 Lijing L Yan Gonghuan Yang Yuichiro Yano Pengpeng Ye 194 Muluken Yenesew Gökalp K Yentür Paul Yip 195 Naohiro Yonemoto 196 Seok-Jun Yoon 197 Mustafa Z Younis 198 Zourkaleini Younoussi Chuanhua Yu 105 Maysaa E Zaki Yong Zhao 199 Yingfeng Zheng 200 Maigeng Zhou 201 Jun Zhu 202 Shankuan Zhu Xiaonong Zou 203 Joseph R Zunt Alan D Lopez 204 Theo Vos Christopher J Murray
71 Laboratoire Charles Fabry / Scop
LCF - Laboratoire Charles Fabry
176 LICB - Laboratory Of Immune Cell Biology
NIH - National Institutes of Health
Abstract : The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Type de document :
Article dans une revue
Lancet, Elsevier, 2015, 386 (10010), pp.2287-2323. <10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00128-2>
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Soumis le : mercredi 27 janvier 2016 - 10:29:07
Dernière modification le : jeudi 27 avril 2017 - 09:47:14

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Mohammad H Forouzanfar, Lily Alexander, H Ross Anderson, Victoria F Bachman, Stan Biryukov, et al.. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.. Lancet, Elsevier, 2015, 386 (10010), pp.2287-2323. <10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00128-2>. <hal-01262737>

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